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Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios

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dc.contributor.authorChandler, Houston C.en
dc.contributor.authorCaruso, Nicholas M.en
dc.contributor.authorMcLaughlin, Daniel L.en
dc.contributor.authorJiao, Yanen
dc.contributor.authorBrooks, George C.en
dc.contributor.authorHaas, Carola A.en
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-15T12:13:24Zen
dc.date.available2024-04-15T12:13:24Zen
dc.date.issued2023-09-19en
dc.description.abstractEphemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025–2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.extent20 page(s)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifierARTN e16050 (Article number)en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.16050en
dc.identifier.eissn2167-8359en
dc.identifier.issn2167-8359en
dc.identifier.orcidHaas, Carola [0000-0002-5490-6882]en
dc.identifier.orcidJiao, Yan [0000-0002-8804-5005]en
dc.identifier.orcidMcLaughlin, Daniel [0000-0001-7394-4780]en
dc.identifier.otherPMC10516105en
dc.identifier.other16050 (PII)en
dc.identifier.pmid37744236en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10919/118581en
dc.identifier.volume11en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPeerJen
dc.relation.urihttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37744236en
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectAmbystoma bishopien
dc.subjectAmphibiansen
dc.subjectConservationen
dc.subjectEphemeral wetlandsen
dc.subjectHydrologyen
dc.subjectManagementen
dc.subjectWater level monitoringen
dc.subject.meshAnimalsen
dc.subject.meshUrodelaen
dc.subject.meshAmbystomaen
dc.subject.meshWetlandsen
dc.subject.meshClimate Changeen
dc.subject.meshPlant Breedingen
dc.titleForecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenariosen
dc.title.serialPeerJen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherArticleen
dc.type.otherJournalen
dcterms.dateAccepted2023-08-16en
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Techen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Natural Resources & Environmenten
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Natural Resources & Environment/Fish and Wildlife Conservationen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Natural Resources & Environment/Forest Resources and Environmental Conservationen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Natural Resources & Environment/CNRE T&R Facultyen

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