The Automation of Numerical Models of Coseismic Tsunamis

The use of tsunami models for applications of 'now-casting', which is the prediction of the present and near future behavior, has limited exploration, and could potentially be of significant usefulness. Tsunamis are most often caused by earthquakes in subduction zones, which generates coupled uplift and subsidence, and displaces the water column. The behavior of the fault failure is difficult to describe in the short term, often requiring seismic waveform inversion, which takes a length of time on the order of weeks to months to properly model, and is much too late for any use in a now-casting sense. To expedite this length of time, a series of source models are created with variable fault geometry behaviors, using fault parameters from Northern Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Short-term Inundation and Forecasting of Tsunamis (SIFT) database, in order to model a series of potential tsunami behaviors using the numerical modelling package, GeoClaw. The implementation of modeling could identify areas of interest for further study that are sensitive to fault failure geometry. Initial results show that by varying the geometry of sub-faults of a given earthquake, the resulting tsunami models behave fairly differently with different wave dispersion behavior, both in pattern and magnitude. While there are shortcomings of the potential geometries the code created in this study, and there are significant improvements that can be made, this study provides a good starting point into now-casting of tsunami models, with future iterations likely involving statistical probability in the fault failure geometries.