The outcomes of international trade conflicts: the U.S. and Japan, 1968-1983

Abstract

Since 1960 national governments have increasingly found themselves in international trade disputes. Yet little research has attempted to analyze this important form of international conflict. The analysis of the U.S.-Japanese trade conflict shows that 11 significant commercial disputes occurred between 1968 and 1983, covering five industrial sectors. The outcomes varied in the degree to which each government achieved its initial objectives. This study proposes five hypotheses for explaining variations in bilateral conflict outcomes, and a technique for comparing outcomes is devised. Within the framework of the misalignment of the dollar-yen exchange rate and the resulting trade deficit, the pattern of variations is explained by the decline of the U.S. hegemony and the political influence of the domestic industries in the U.S. as well as in Japan on the outcomes of the trade conflicts.