The Effect of Icing on the Dispatch Reliability of Small Aircraft

In 2000, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated a program to promote the use of small aircraft as an additional option for national public transportation. The Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) asserted the idea of everyday individuals piloting themselves on trips, within a specified distance range, using a small (4 person), piston powered, un-pressurized aircraft and small airports in close proximity to their origin and destination.

This thesis investigates how one weather phenomenon, in-flight icing, affects the dispatch reliability of this transportation system. Specifically, this research presumes that a route is considered a "no-go" for low time pilots in a small, piston powered aircraft if any icing conditions are forecast along the route at the altitude of the flight during the time the traveler desires to make the trip.

This thesis evaluates direct flights between Cleveland and Boston; Boston and Washington, D.C.; and Washington, D.C. and Cleveland during the months of November through May for the years 2001 to 2003 at maximum cruising altitudes of 6,000 feet, 8,000 feet, 10,000 feet, and 12,000 feet above mean sea level (MSL). It was found that the overall probability of a "no-go" for all three flight paths at the normal cruising altitude of 12,000 feet is 56.8%. When the cruising altitude is reduced to 10,000 feet, 8,000 feet, and 6,000 feet the probability of a "no-go" for all three flight paths reduces to 54.6%, 48.5%, and 43.7% respectively.