Integrated mechanistic and economic modeling of ecosystem services to inform land-use decisions under uncertainty

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Management of public lands in the United States is guided by site-specific objectives that can be synergistic or competing and that affect stakeholders unequally. Furthermore, actions available to land managers affect outcomes of interest in ways that are often incompletely understood. For example, in the United States, military bases variously serve as habitat for vulnerable or endangered species, provide flood protection to nearby communities, permit hunting and fishing, and sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Military bases and diverse other types of public lands provide other socially and economically relevant services that depend on certain biophysical conditions. Base managers and other policymakers seek tools to improve their understanding of (1) how alternative land-use practices may affect the range of biophysical outcomes of interest on and off the sites they manage; and (2) the total and relative economic importance of changes to those outcomes.