An approach to considering uncertainty in developing long-term, least-cost wood procurement policies

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dc.contributor.authorHaynes, Richard W.en
dc.contributor.committeechairThompson, Emmett F.en
dc.contributor.committeememberHoepner, Paul H.en
dc.contributor.committeememberRichards, Douglas P.en
dc.contributor.departmentForest Managementen
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-14T20:33:23Zen
dc.date.adate2010-04-12en
dc.date.available2014-03-14T20:33:23Zen
dc.date.issued1968-12-15en
dc.date.rdate2010-04-12en
dc.date.sdate2010-04-12en
dc.description.abstractAn approach was developed to consider the uncertainty which is intrinsic to forestry decisions. The approach was termed a partial stochastic linear program because uncertainty was considered by introducing variation into one element of the linear programming model (the right hand side). To implement this approach, subjective evaluations were made, regarding the amount of uncertainty associated with the values in question. This approach was applied to a wood procurement problem which had been previously solved as deterministic. The previous problem was a case study of an integrated forest products firm with the objective of minimizing the present value of wood procurement over a 20-year study using linear programming. The management of this firm was required to make subjective estimates of the variation associated with each available source of supply. The original case study was then reformulated as a partial stochastic linear program. The solutions of the partial stochastic approach were compared to the deterministic solution. This comparison showed the procurement policies suggested by both approaches were much the same. However, the stochastic approach differed in that management could obtain information about the sensitivity of a policy or a source and establish trade-off relationships between the cost of one policy and the uncertainty of another policy. The questions of the extent of model building and the implications for future study in this area are also considered.en
dc.description.degreeMaster of Scienceen
dc.format.extent59 leavesen
dc.format.mediumBTDen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.otheretd-04122010-083532en
dc.identifier.sourceurlhttp://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-04122010-083532/en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/31694en
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.relation.haspartLD5655.V855_1968.H394.pdfen
dc.relation.isformatofOCLC# 38300993en
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectforestry decisionsen
dc.subject.lccLD5655.V855 1968.H394en
dc.titleAn approach to considering uncertainty in developing long-term, least-cost wood procurement policiesen
dc.typeThesisen
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
thesis.degree.disciplineForest Managementen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Instituteen
thesis.degree.levelmastersen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen

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