Maintaining Nuclear Stability in the Wake of a Strained Liberal Order

Abstract

The liberal order that has defined the last eighty years of history is undergoing a major shift. The United States has long been the tradition-maker of the order, and the consensus leader since the end of the Cold War. This, however, is changing as American domestic policy turns inward and has lost the domestic reliability that allowed the current order to blossom. The nuclear nonproliferation regime coevolved with the liberal order, and as the order moves away from American hegemony, the nonproliferation regime, as an institution of the liberal order, is also evolving. Unlike other institutions that may decline or disappear as multipolarity emerges, certain aspects of the nuclear nonproliferation regime must remain. To do this, nuclear states should continue to encourage an environment of nonproliferation by providing a reinforced security umbrella and supporting state access to peaceful nuclear energy programs. Additionally, current global leaders should reinforce commitments to non-first-use policies that prevent the need for others to obtain second-strike capabilities. These principles, which are essential to the existence of the nuclear nonproliferation regime and have underpinned the success of the liberal order, much remain intact as the world shifts into an era of increasing multipolarity.