Maintaining a Nitrogen Cap for Virginia's Potomac River: The Contribution of Alternative Development Patterns
The Chesapeake Bay, once one of the worlds most productive estuaries, has been severely impacted by human activity in the water and on the lands around it. Viewed as an ecosystem, the Bay is no longer able to support the variety and abundance of biota that it was historically able to. Several decades of research on the Chesapeake have pointed to human activities as being the principle reason for this decline. Of these detrimental activities, elevated inputs of Nitrogen and Phosphorus to the Bay were singled out as being the greatest cause of water quality deterioration.
The state of Virginia is trying to reduce its annual load of Nitrogen, to the Potomac River, to 60% of what the load was estimated to be in 1985. Virginia would like to accomplish this goal at the lowest cost to its citizens. Therefore the state needs to determine the combination of nitrogen control efforts which will achieve the goal at the lowest cost. The state would also like to be able to maintain nitrogen loads at or below this cap level, indefinitely into the future.
This study was undertaken with three primary objectives. The first was to project the level of annual nitrogen inputs to the Potomac River, from the state of Virginia, over the next 15 years. The second was to estimate the minimum annual costs necessary to achieve and maintain a 40% reduction in total nitrogen inputs, using the Virginia's estimated 1985 inputs as a baseline. The final objective was to assess the potential cost savings that may result from using one of two alternative development patterns within the rapidly urbanizing Northern Virginia portion of the Potomac Watershed. The first alternative is prohibiting low-density development within the Northern Virginia region, and the second is to restrict all new development to be within 5 miles of an existing urban area.
Study results suggest that there has been no significant progress toward meeting the nitrogen reduction goal, due to the increase in population within the watershed, over the past 13 years. To attain the goal in 1998, a minimum of $27 million, above what is currently being spent annually, would be required. Under the current land use trend within Virginia's Potomac Basin, the annual cost for maintaining the goal is estimated to rise to $38 million annually, in 1998 dollars, by the year 2013. This is a 40% increase in cost.
If the first alternative development pattern is adhered to over this 15-year period, then the annual cost will be $33 million, for an annual cost saving of approximately $5 million in 2013. The second alternative could achieve similar results if implemented, costing roughly $5 million less in 2013 than the annual cost per year under the current trend. These findings suggest that the use of alternative development patterns can help slow but not prevent the annual cost, of maintaining the cap, from rising.
The study indicates that the reason for the continuous rise in annual cost, over this fifteen-year period, is due primarily to an increase in nitrogen loading to the Potomac that will result from the wastewater disposal needs of the growing population within the Basin. Furthermore, the state will eventually exhaust its lower cost options for reducing Nitrogen loadings, and at that point the annual cost for maintaining the Nitrogen Cap will begin to rise exponentially. Under current land use trends this rapid rise in cost is unlikely to occur within the next 15 years, and is more apt to occur sometime within the next 20 to 40 years. Once annual expenditures begin to rise exponentially it is unlikely that the state of Virginia would be able to maintain its 40% reduction goal.