Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States

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dc.contributor.authorIllán, Javier Gutierrezen
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Gengpingen
dc.contributor.authorWalgenbach, James F.en
dc.contributor.authorAcebes-Doria, Angelen
dc.contributor.authorAgnello, Arthur M.en
dc.contributor.authorAlston, Diane G.en
dc.contributor.authorAndrews, Heatheren
dc.contributor.authorBeers, Elisabeth H.en
dc.contributor.authorBergh, J. Christopheren
dc.contributor.authorBessin, Ricardo T.en
dc.contributor.authorBlaauw, Brett R.en
dc.contributor.authorBuntin, G. Daviden
dc.contributor.authorBurkness, Erik C.en
dc.contributor.authorCullum, John P.en
dc.contributor.authorDaane, Kent M.en
dc.contributor.authorFann, Lauren E.en
dc.contributor.authorFisher, Joannaen
dc.contributor.authorGirod, Pierreen
dc.contributor.authorGut, Larry J.en
dc.contributor.authorHamilton, George C.en
dc.contributor.authorHepler, James R.en
dc.contributor.authorHilton, Richarden
dc.contributor.authorHoelmer, Kim A.en
dc.contributor.authorHutchison, William D.en
dc.contributor.authorJentsch, Peter J.en
dc.contributor.authorJoseph, Shimat V.en
dc.contributor.authorKennedy, George G.en
dc.contributor.authorKrawczyk, Grzegorzen
dc.contributor.authorKuhar, Thomas P.en
dc.contributor.authorLee, Jana C.en
dc.contributor.authorLeskey, Tracy C.en
dc.contributor.authorMarshal, Adrian T.en
dc.contributor.authorMilnes, Joshua M.en
dc.contributor.authorNielsen, Anne L.en
dc.contributor.authorPatel, Dilani K.en
dc.contributor.authorPeterson, Hillary D.en
dc.contributor.authorReisig, Dominic D.en
dc.contributor.authorRijal, Jhalendra P.en
dc.contributor.authorSial, Ashfaq A.en
dc.contributor.authorSpears, Lori R.en
dc.contributor.authorStahl, Judith M.en
dc.contributor.authorTatman, Kathy M.en
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Sally V.en
dc.contributor.authorTillman, Glynnen
dc.contributor.authorToews, Michael D.en
dc.contributor.authorVillanueva, Raul T.en
dc.contributor.authorWelty, Celesteen
dc.contributor.authorWiman, Nik G.en
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Julianna K.en
dc.contributor.authorZalom, Frank G.en
dc.contributor.authorCrowder, David W.en
dc.coverage.countryUnited Statesen
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-13T14:27:32Zen
dc.date.available2023-01-13T14:27:32Zen
dc.date.issued2022-11-01en
dc.date.updated2023-01-13T13:51:32Zen
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Invasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States. RESULTS: We used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence-based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.extentPages 4929-4938en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7113en
dc.identifier.eissn1526-4998en
dc.identifier.issn1526-498Xen
dc.identifier.issue11en
dc.identifier.orcidBergh, James [0000-0003-3610-7240]en
dc.identifier.orcidTaylor, Sally [0000-0003-2970-0687]en
dc.identifier.pmid36054536en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/113167en
dc.identifier.volume78en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.relation.urihttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36054536en
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectdistribution changeen
dc.subjectecological niche modelsen
dc.subjectinvasive speciesen
dc.subjectspecies distribution modelsen
dc.subject15 Life on Landen
dc.subject13 Climate Actionen
dc.subject.meshAnimalsen
dc.subject.meshHeteropteraen
dc.subject.meshEcosystemen
dc.subject.meshPopulation Dynamicsen
dc.subject.meshUnited Statesen
dc.subject.meshClimate Changeen
dc.subject.meshIntroduced Speciesen
dc.titleEvaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United Statesen
dc.title.serialPest Management Scienceen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherJournal Articleen
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-08-03en
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Techen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciences/Alson H. Smith, Jr. ARECen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciences/Tidewater ARECen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciences/CALS T&R Facultyen

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