Exploring the Impact of Climate and Productivity on Soil Carbon Across the Native Range of Loblolly Pine

Policies intended to pursue climate mitigation through soil carbon sequestration require accurate estimates of soil carbon stocks and projections of how carbon pools will change with future climate. In this study, the process model MIMICS-CN was utilized to explore the potential changes in bulk soil organic carbon (SOC) and protected mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) with changes in mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual net primary productivity (NPP) for the native range of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L). A Monte Carlo method was used to calibrate a large ensemble of model parameters using observational data from loblolly pine stands. Spatial projections of carbon pools across the native range of loblolly pine were produced for nine temperature and productivity scenarios representing a range of likely futures. The standard deviation of the mean total SOC pool to a depth of 30 cm was 3.6 kg C m-2 while the standard deviation of potential changes in pool magnitude was 0.96 kg C m-2. Associated with regional climate change projections, increases in MAT caused losses in bulk SOC but did not affect MAOM. Simulated increases in NPP resulted in increased bulk SOC, MAOM and the proportion of SOC that is MAOM (MAOM:SOC) highlighting the importance of productivity in sequestering atmospheric CO2 in general and in protected C pools, specifically. SOC pools did not change consistently across the landscape. Rather, they varied by subregion due to differences in soil texture and changes in forecasted NPP. Soils with clay contents above 18% had the greatest potential to accumulate MAOM and bulk SOC under a realistic future climate scenarios. In regions with low clay content, significant increases in total SOC are driven by the accumulation of C in unprotected SOC sub-pools. With the maximum likely increase in NPP (31.4%), a regionwide increase in total SOC of 29% was projected whereas subregions in which NPP decreases showed no potential to increase soil carbon stocks. We conclude that the management of loblolly pine to increase productivity can increase the amount of SOC and the residence time of bulk SOC over decadal time scales, however regional differences in the proportion of C in MAOM and unprotected pools must be considered when planning silvicultural management.