One, two and three quarter forecasting models for broiler price

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop easy to use price forecasting models to predict broiler price one, two and three quarters in advance.

A system of five equations was developed for the two and three quarter lag models and a system of four equations was developed for the one quarter lag model. All coefficients in the equations were estimated using data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The models presented are true forecasting models which predict outside the data base. The models are user oriented. Examples were presented and the data base supplied so that anyone interested in using the models can easily duplicate the results. The models were analyzed for predictive ability and were compared with the ability of the futures market to forecast broiler price. Results showed all three models predicted better than no-change extrapolation. The models predicting broiler price two and three quarters in advance predicted better than the futures market.