Does Stadium Construction Drive Surrounding Urban Development? Evidence from Spatiotemporal Impacts of Large-Scale Stadiums in China

Abstract

Existing research on the urban impacts of stadium construction has been predominantly shaped by cost-benefit frameworks in Western contexts. In China, however, stadium construction is deployed as part of state-led development packages as strategic instruments for inter-city competition and spatial restructuring. Whether this approach generates sustained spatial effects in surrounding areas remains unclear. This study analyzes 153 large-scale stadiums (≥15,000 seats or ≥15 ha) completed between 2004 and 2019 across Chinese cities, using a spatiotemporal panel dataset and an interrupted time series (ITS) model to assess changes in urban development intensity within 5 km buffers. We find that development intensity rises sharply in the period immediately after stadium completion—plus a one-time bump in the year of the first major sporting event—but does not produce a sustained change in the longer-run post-completion growth trajectory. The effect is significantly stronger in sub-provincial and provincial capital cities, while distance to the city center and built environment quality do not significantly moderate the outcome. These results suggest that stadium-related development gains are shaped by the coordination capacity embedded in administrative hierarchy rather than by localized spatial conditions, highlighting a fundamental asymmetry between the replicability of development templates and the institutional capacity required to translate them into sustained spatial outcomes.