Hydrologic-based modelling of burn depth potentials in degraded peat soils

Peatland drainage may degrade system resilience to high intensity, soil-consuming fires. Peat soil fires are unique in that they can smoulder vertically through the soil column, with a multitude of consequences including large carbon emissions, altered hydrology, and dramatic shifts in vegetation communities. In this work we developed and verified a new method to model peat burn depths with readily available water level and peat hydraulic property data at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge (VA and NC, USA). To model peat burn depths across 11 sites in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge we combined water table time series data and soil moisture release curves, developed at multiple depths, with moisture-to-ignition thresholds. A subset of the results from this empirical modelling approach of peat burn depth severity were compared against those made using a mechanistic model of soil moisture, HYDRUS 1-D. By comparing modelled burn depth potentials between these two approaches for a range of peats, we confirmed that our simpler, water table-based approach had similar performance to HYDRUS 1-D in drained and degraded peats, like those found in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. A comparative analysis of modelled burn depths across our study site found that water table position and peat water holding capacity were the key governing controls on burn depth potential. Our findings suggest that drainage weakens both short- and long-term controls on peat burn depths by reducing soil moisture and by decreasing peat water holding capacity. This new approach offers land managers with an additional tool for assessing risk while offering insight into the drivers of peatland wildfire severity.