Data assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoir

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dc.contributor.authorWander, Heather L.en
dc.contributor.authorThomas, R. Quinnen
dc.contributor.authorMoore, Tadhg N.en
dc.contributor.authorLofton, Mary E.en
dc.contributor.authorBreef-Pilz, Adrienneen
dc.contributor.authorCarey, Cayelan C.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-27T19:41:21Zen
dc.date.available2025-01-27T19:41:21Zen
dc.date.issued2024-02-13en
dc.description.abstractEcosystems around the globe are experiencing changes in both the magnitude and fluctuations of environmental conditions due to land use and climate change. In response, ecologists are increasingly using near-term, iterative ecological forecasts to predict how ecosystems will change in the future. To date, many near-term, iterative forecasting systems have been developed using high temporal frequency (minute to hourly resolution) data streams for assimilation. However, this approach may be cost-prohibitive or impossible for forecasting ecological variables that lack high-frequency sensors or have high data latency (i.e., a delay before data are available for modeling after collection). To explore the effects of data assimilation frequency on forecast skill, we developed water temperature forecasts for a eutrophic drinking water reservoir and conducted data assimilation experiments by selectively withholding observations to examine the effect of data availability on forecast accuracy. We used in situ sensors, manually collected data, and a calibrated water quality ecosystem model driven by forecasted weather data to generate future water temperature forecasts using Forecasting Lake and Reservoir Ecosystems (FLARE), an open source water quality forecasting system. We tested the effect of daily, weekly, fortnightly, and monthly data assimilation on the skill of 1- to 35-day-ahead water temperature forecasts. We found that forecast skill varied depending on the season, forecast horizon, depth, and data assimilation frequency, but overall forecast performance was high, with a mean 1-day-ahead forecast root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.81°C, mean 7-day RMSE of 1.15°C, and mean 35-day RMSE of 1.94°C. Aggregated across the year, daily data assimilation yielded the most skillful forecasts at 1- to 7-day-ahead horizons, but weekly data assimilation resulted in the most skillful forecasts at 8- to 35-day-ahead horizons. Within a year, forecasts with weekly data assimilation consistently outperformed forecasts with daily data assimilation after the 8-day forecast horizon during mixed spring/autumn periods and 5- to 14-day-ahead horizons during the summer-stratified period, depending on depth. Our results suggest that lower frequency data (i.e., weekly) may be adequate for developing accurate forecasts in some applications, further enabling the development of forecasts broadly across ecosystems and ecological variables without high-frequency sensor data.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifierARTN e4752 (Article number)en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4752en
dc.identifier.eissn2150-8925en
dc.identifier.issn2150-8925en
dc.identifier.issue2en
dc.identifier.orcidThomas, Robert [0000-0003-1282-7825]en
dc.identifier.orcidCarey, Cayelan [0000-0001-8835-4476]en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10919/124401en
dc.identifier.volume15en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectdata collection frequencyen
dc.subjectFLAREen
dc.subjecthigh-frequency sensorsen
dc.subjectinitial conditionsen
dc.subjectobservationsen
dc.subjectuncertaintyen
dc.subjectwater temperatureen
dc.titleData assimilation experiments inform monitoring needs for near-term ecological forecasts in a eutrophic reservoiren
dc.title.serialEcosphereen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherArticleen
dcterms.dateAccepted2023-12-22en
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Techen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Scienceen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Science/Biological Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Science/COS T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-groupVirginia Tech/Post-docsen

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