Future rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basin

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dc.contributor.authorKang, Hyunwooen
dc.contributor.authorSridhar, Venkataramanaen
dc.contributor.authorMainuddin, Mohammeden
dc.contributor.authorLe, Duc Trungen
dc.contributor.departmentBiological Systems Engineeringen
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-13T17:06:48Zen
dc.date.available2021-08-13T17:06:48Zen
dc.date.issued2021-04-30en
dc.date.updated2021-08-13T17:06:44Zen
dc.description.abstractThe Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) has experienced droughts in recent decades, causing detrimental economic losses and food security conundrums. This study quantified the impact of climate change on drought, and rainfed rice production in the LMB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and AquaCrop models were used to evaluate long-term drought indices and rainfed rice yields under historical and future climate conditions (1954–2099) with four climate models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We found that rice yield might increase (24–43%) due to the elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (+ 34.3 to + 121.9%) and increases in precipitation. Contrastingly, considerable decreases in rice yield up to 1.5 ton/ha in the Vietnam Central High Plain (VCHP) region could be expected resulting from reduced precipitation by about 34% during drought years. To avert any major food crisis, an expansion of irrigation areas could be required to compensate for the expected reduction in rice yields. We conclude that a framework combining hydrology and crop models to assess climate change impacts on food production is key to develop adaptation strategies in the future.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.extent15 page(s)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifierARTN 9383 (Article number)en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88405-2en
dc.identifier.eissn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.issue1en
dc.identifier.orcidSridhar, Venkataramana [0000-0002-1003-2247]en
dc.identifier.other10.1038/s41598-021-88405-2 (PII)en
dc.identifier.pmid33931657 (pubmed)en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/104637en
dc.identifier.volume11en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNature Researchen
dc.relation.urihttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000656499000004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=930d57c9ac61a043676db62af60056c1en
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectIRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTen
dc.subjectCLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTSen
dc.subjectLAND-SURFACE FLUXESen
dc.subjectRAIN-FED RICEen
dc.subjectRIVER-BASINen
dc.subjectADAPTATION STRATEGIESen
dc.subjectCARBON-DIOXIDEen
dc.subjectGLOBAL DATASETen
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITYen
dc.subjectYIELDen
dc.titleFuture rice farming threatened by drought in the Lower Mekong Basinen
dc.title.serialScientific Reportsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherArticleen
dc.type.otherJournalen
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-04-12en
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Techen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciences/Biological Systems Engineeringen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/University Research Institutesen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/University Research Institutes/Fralin Life Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Agriculture & Life Sciences/CALS T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/University Research Institutes/Fralin Life Sciences/Durelle Scotten

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