Risk Analysis in Implementing Building Energy Performance Projects: Hybrid DANP-VIKOR Model Analysis — A Case Study in Iran

Abstract

Building energy performance contracts have emerged as a highly effective strategy for reducing energy consumption in both developed and developing markets. These projects inherently involve risks, and a comprehensive risk analysis can greatly enhance their successful implementation, especially in emerging markets. This research aims to analyze risks associated with building energy performance projects, considering their interrelationships, prioritization, and the ranking of optimal project types based on the analyzed risks. Given its position as the largest electrical energy consumer in the Middle East and its status as an emerging market, Iran was selected as the case study for conducting the risk analysis. Thirteen risk factors were classified into four distinct risk groups, and their relationships and priority weights were determined using a hybrid DANP approach. Subsequently, the VIKOR method was employed to rank the most-advantageous project types based on their risk priorities. The findings of this research identified project lifecycle risks as the highest-priority risks, while external risks were determined to be the most-influential among all identified risks. Moreover, the implementation of packaged public projects was identified as the most-favorable alternative for promoting building energy performance projects in Iran and similar emerging markets. By providing a comprehensive understanding of risks, this study offers valuable insights that can aid emerging and developing markets in successfully implementing energy performance projects and improving overall energy efficiency.