An analysis of the environmental stability of Virginia

Abstract

Projections of land use, based on data from The Conservation Needs Inventory for 1967, were made to the year 2020. Major environmental variables which are partially dependent on land use were also estimated for the period 1970 - 2020. Most probable estimates showed erosion and sedimentation, mean annual runoff, magnitude of peak streamflow, and solid waste generation increasing from 1970 to 2020. Criteria important to defining ecological stability were presented. Analyzed in terms of the stability criteria, all major variables indicated increased ecological instability for Virginia from 1970 - 2020. An index estimating the capacity of a state to support people was developed. Projections of land use were used to calculate this index for 1970 - 2020. Other variables considered were closedness of the state (with respect to outside resource availability), pollution, per capita land need for urban, agricultural, and forest products, and human population. Evaluation of this index showed a rapidly narrowing gap between the number of people expected in Virginia and the capacity of the state to support people at present consumption levels. In realistic evaluations of the index, the capacity of the state to support people was exceeded before 2020, indicating decreasing likelihood of maintaining present consumption levels. Possible environmental objectives, for achieving environmental stability for Virginia, were discussed.