A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch Considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch (SED) problem for the purpose of forecasting, the conventional Monte-Carlo (MC) method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator (GPE)-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in SED considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) as the computer experimental design, a GPE is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated SED model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.