Forecasting ecosystem services to guide coastal wetland rehabilitation decisions

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dc.contributor.authorCalder, Ryan S. D.en
dc.contributor.authorShi, Congjieen
dc.contributor.authorMason, Sara A.en
dc.contributor.authorOlander, Lydia P.en
dc.contributor.authorBorsuk, Mark E.en
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-13T21:49:31Zen
dc.date.available2020-10-13T21:49:31Zen
dc.date.issued2019-10-01en
dc.date.updated2020-10-13T21:49:29Zen
dc.description.abstractCoastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services such as flood protection and recreational value. However, predicting changes in ecosystem service value fr0k from restoration or management is challenging because environmental systems are highly complex and uncertain. Furthermore, benefits are diverse and accrue over various timescales. We developed a generalizable mathematical coastal management model to compare restoration expenditures to ecosystem service benefits and apply it to McInnis Marsh, Marin County, California, USA. We find that benefits of restoration outweigh costs for a wide range of assumptions. For instance, costs of restoration range from 8–30% of the increase in ecosystem service value over 50 years depending on discount rate. Flood protection is the dominant monetized service for most payback periods and discount rates, but other services (e.g., recreation) dominate on shorter timescales (>50% of total value for payback periods ≤4 years). We find that the range of total ecosystem service value is narrower than overall variability reported in the literature, supporting the use of mechanistic methods in decision-making around coastal resiliency. However, the magnitude and relative importance of ecosystem services are sensitive to payback period, discount rate and risk tolerance, demonstrating the importance of probabilistic decision analysis. This work provides a modular, transferrable tool to that can also inform coastal resiliency investments elsewhere.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.extent12 page(s)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifierARTN 101007 (Article number)en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101007en
dc.identifier.issn2212-0416en
dc.identifier.orcidCalder, Ryan [0000-0001-5618-9840]en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/100477en
dc.identifier.volume39en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectLife Sciences & Biomedicineen
dc.subjectEcologyen
dc.subjectEnvironmental Sciencesen
dc.subjectEnvironmental Studiesen
dc.subjectEnvironmental Sciences & Ecologyen
dc.subjectEcosystem servicesen
dc.subjectEconomic valuationen
dc.subjectEnvironmental modelingen
dc.subjectCoastal wetlandsen
dc.subjectClimate adaptationen
dc.subjectDecision analysisen
dc.subjectCARBON SEQUESTRATIONen
dc.subjectCONSTRUCTED WETLANDSen
dc.subjectNITROGENen
dc.subjectREMOVALen
dc.subjectMARSHen
dc.subjectRESTORATIONen
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTYen
dc.subjectSEDIMENTen
dc.subjectSYSTEMSen
dc.subjectMODELen
dc.subject1402 Applied Economicsen
dc.subject1499 Other Economicsen
dc.titleForecasting ecosystem services to guide coastal wetland rehabilitation decisionsen
dc.title.serialEcosystem Servicesen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.otherArticleen
dc.type.otherJournalen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Veterinary Medicineen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Faculty of Health Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/All T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Veterinary Medicine/Population Health Sciencesen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Tech/Veterinary Medicine/CVM T&R Facultyen
pubs.organisational-group/Virginia Techen

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