Synoptic-Scale Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Flash Drought Initiation in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean

While conventional drought has been studied for many years, new research focuses on different aspects and types of drought. Flash Drought is a relatively new area of research in drought literature, dating back to the last ten to twenty years in the United States. Flash drought in the Caribbean has received minimal attention from researchers, but it has been studied in the United States primarily because of the 2012 flash drought event over the Great Plains. This study focuses on flash drought events in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. Because the rapid onset and intensity of flash drought can potentially cause more devastation without established prediction methods, this research seeks to understand the synoptic scale atmospheric drivers of flash drought events. Recent occurrences of a flash drought event in this region include the 2015 event in Puerto Rico, which resulted in water rationing and shortages for residents of the island (Mote et al., 2017). The primary goal of this study is to understand how flash drought initiates and propagates for Puerto Rico and the Caribbean using two definitions of flash drought. One definition is based on soil moisture deficit, and the second definition is based on the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), an experimental drought monitoring tool. Results suggest that an anomalous convection and positive moisture event followed by negative moisture anomalies and persistent subsidence contribute to flash drought event initiation and propagation. Additionally, large scale flash drought events seem to be initiating more frequently, suggesting that the island is becoming more susceptible to the devastations of flash drought.