Simulation of Chinese Sorghum Imports from a New Perspective: U.S. and Global Impacts

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dc.contributor.authorZhang, Weien
dc.contributor.committeechairMarchant, Mary A.en
dc.contributor.committeememberHansen, James Marken
dc.contributor.committeememberGrant, Jason H.en
dc.contributor.departmentAgricultural and Applied Economicsen
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-16T08:00:21Zen
dc.date.available2017-06-16T08:00:21Zen
dc.date.issued2017-06-15en
dc.description.abstractThis thesis aims to analyze the impacts on U.S. and global sorghum trade, and whether China will continue importing sorghum from the global sorghum market for feed use, if the Chinese government cancels its corn price support policy and corn temporary reserve program nationwide. This study uses the USDA-ERS China Model and the Country-Commodity Linked System (CCLS) to simulate the impacts on U.S. sorghum exports and the reduction of sorghum's global price, global production, and global trade volumes. The simulations are based on three scenarios: if China's sorghum import volume decreased by 50% from USDA-ERS's baseline projection, if China's sorghum import volume decreased by 35% each year from the previous year, and if China's sorghum import volume decreased by 70% from USDA-ERS's baseline projection in year one and by 90% from USDA-ERS's baseline projection in subsequent years. The modeling system is a large scale multi-country and multi-commodity partial equilibrium dynamic simulation model which solves for global prices and trade using individual country models. Policy instruments are applied to the China model and solved globally. The USDA-ERS China Model and the CCLS, used to project Chinese and global sorghum trends, includes the following policy instruments: tariffs, quotas, tariff rate quotas, export tax, direct payments, input subsidies, and procurement policies. This model simulates projections using price and income elasticities and assumed values for exogenous variables such as income and population growth. This model also incorporates behavior of state trading enterprises and WTO commitments into imported and exported equations for sorghum.en
dc.description.abstractgeneralThis research uses the USDA-ERS China model to analyze the impacts on U.S. and global sorghum trade, and whether China will continue importing sorghum for feed use, if the Chinese government cancels its corn price support policy nationwide. Results show that the decrease of China’s sorghum imports resulted in less sorghum demand and lower sorghum price in the global market. Sorghum exports for U.S. and other major sorghum exporters decreased significantly. The results show the necessity to seek new sorghum export opportunities worldwide for U.S. sorghum exporters. Meanwhile, U.S. sorghum exporters may change their cropping patterns to continue making profits by switching out of sorghum.en
dc.description.degreeMaster of Scienceen
dc.format.mediumETDen
dc.identifier.othervt_gsexam:12029en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/78211en
dc.publisherVirginia Techen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectChinaen
dc.subjectU.S.-China Tradeen
dc.subjectSorghumen
dc.subjectUSDA-ERS China Modelen
dc.subjectSimulationen
dc.subjectGlobal Impactsen
dc.subjectAgricultural Policyen
dc.titleSimulation of Chinese Sorghum Imports from a New Perspective: U.S. and Global Impactsen
dc.typeThesisen
thesis.degree.disciplineAgricultural and Applied Economicsen
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen
thesis.degree.levelmastersen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen

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