Lyme Disease and Forest Fragmentation in the Peridomestic Environment

Over the last 20 years, Lyme disease has grown to become the most common vector-borne disease affecting Americans. Spread in the eastern U.S. primarily by the bite of Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, the disease affects an estimated 329,000 Americans per year. Originally confined to New England, it has since spread across much of the east coast and has become endemic in Virginia. Since 2010 the state has averaged 1200 cases per year, with 200 annually in the New River Health District (NRHD), the location of our study.

Efforts to geographically model Lyme disease primarily focus on landscape and climatic variables. The disease depends highly on the survival of the tick vector, and white-footed mouse, the primary reservoir. Both depend on the existence of forest-herbaceous edge-habitats, as well as warm summer temperatures, mild winter lows, and summer wetness. While many studies have investigated the effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme, none have made use of high-resolution land cover data to do so at the peridomestic level.

To fill this knowledge gap, we made use of the Virginia Geographic Information Network’s 1-meter land cover dataset and identified forest-herbaceous edge-habitats for the NRHD. We then calculated the density of these edge-habitats at 100, 200 and 300-meter radii, representing the peridomestic environment. We also calculated the density of <2-hectare forest patches at the same distance thresholds. To avoid confounding from climatic variation, we also calculated mean summer temperatures, total summer rainfall, and number of consecutive days below freezing of the prior winters. Adding to these data, elevation, terrain shape index, slope, and aspect, and including lags on each of our climatic variables, we created environmental niche models of Lyme in the NRHD. We did so using both Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, the two most common niche modeling algorithms in the field today.

We found that Lyme is strongly associated with higher density of developed-herbaceous edges within 100-meters from the home. Forest patch density was also significant at both 100-meter and 300-meter levels. This supports the notion that the fine scale peridomestic environment is significant to Lyme outcomes, and must be considered even if one were to account for fragmentation at a wider scale, as well as variations in climate and terrain.