Assessing the environmental, biotic, climatic, and anthropogenic factors driving patterns of space-use of jaguars and co-occurrence of three sympatric felid species through occupancy modelling in Belize, Central America

Abstract

The jaguar is an apex predator whose conservation is critical for maintaining ecosystem structure across the Neotropics. Despite its ecological importance, country-wide assessments of jaguar population dynamics remain limited in Belize. We conducted the first large-scale, long-term evaluation of jaguar distribution across Belize by integrating over two decades of camera trap data from multiple protected areas and wildlife corridors spanning ~4,000 km². Using single-species, single-season and multi-season occupancy modeling frameworks, we assessed the influence of environmental, biotic, climatic, and anthropogenic factors on jaguar space use, detection, colonization, and extinction dynamics. Across all study areas, jaguar occupancy was consistently high (ψ > 0.60) and relatively stable through time in well-protected landscapes. In single-season models, occupancy and detection were most strongly influenced by biotic covariates, particularly prey trap rates, while environmental covariates such as enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at multiple spatial scales and influence of distance to water bodies varied across sites and years. In multi-season models, environmental drivers played a larger role in shaping long-term dynamics, with occupancy positively associated with vegetation structure and hydrological features. Detection probability was highly variable and influenced by a combination of prey availability, vegetation structure, climate (precipitation), and anthropogenic covariates. Colonization (γ) was generally higher than extinction (ε) across sites, with colonization associated with favorable habitat conditions, indicating dynamic but resilient occupancy patterns. In contrast, areas with greater anthropogenic pressure exhibited reduced space use and increased potential for human–wildlife conflict. To further contextualize felid spatial dynamics, we evaluated co-occurrence patterns among jaguars, pumas, and ocelots using single-season co-occurrence models. Felid occupancy and co-existence were structured by environmental gradients, particularly vegetation productivity (EVI) and proximity to water, in combination with prey availability. Patterns of co-occurrence suggest spatially driven niche partitioning; whereby sympatric felids adjust space use in response to one another while maintaining overlap in shared habitat and resource preferences. Overall, our findings demonstrate that jaguar populations in Belize remain broadly stable but are governed by complex, scale-dependent ecological processes. By integrating single-season, multi-season, and co-occurrence modeling approaches, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of felid spatial ecology and highlights importance of multi-use landscapes in maintaining carnivore communities. These results offer critical insights for conservation planning, emphasizing the need to maintain habitat structure, ensure water availability, and incorporate prey dynamics into landscape-level management strategies in the Selva Maya.