A system dynamics model for the development of China's air transportation system

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Virginia Tech

The primary purpose of this thesis is to estimate the demands on the Air Transportation System in China and to establish a systematic framework for China's Air Transpo11ation System Development in the future. The Systems Dynamics Methodology is used to analyze and understand the relationships between policy variables dictating the future of China's Air Transportation System and technological and economic variables to reach acceptable levels of service in a fast growing economy. Through alternative policy and sensitivity analysis, planners can gain insight into solving Air Transportation System development problems, understand how to operate the Air Transportation System, and to obtain the most efficient results through systems thinking. This model could be used to communicate relevant information to the decision makers in a readily understandable and useful form and in a timely fashion.

Two models are developed in this thesis: 1) A macroscopic China's Socio-economic Development Model (CSEDM) and 2) A microscopic China's Air transportation System Development Model (CATSD1\1). CSED:NI is organized into the following components: Industry, Agriculture, Social, Infrastructure, Population, and Potential Air Demand and Air Subsidy sectors. The potential air demand is only referred to as the function of some socio-economic variables. The relationship between the potential air demand and some socio-economic variables is established by the macroscopic model. The potential air demand and air subsidy are estimated by the CSEDM.

The China's Air Transportation System Development Model (CATSDM) comprises of the Airlines, Air Routes and Airports sectors. The potential air demand will be calibrated by the elasticity coefficient of the air fare and the total annual delay. Both models have been developed in STELLA IT, a computer software to develop Systems Dynamics models. The most important outputs of the model are the number of aircraft, airports and airspace routes to maintain pace with China's growing economy. Various policies variables have been examined to estimate their effect in the air transportation demand and airport growth.

systems, dynamics, Modeling, air, transportation