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Browsing by Author "McCarl, Bruce A."

Now showing 1 - 20 of 22
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    Agricultural mitigation of greenhouse gases: Science and policy options
    Paustian, Keith; Babcock, Bruce; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Lal, Rattan; McCarl, Bruce A.; McLaughlin, Sandy; Mosier, A.rvin; Rice, Charles; Roberton, G.Philip; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Schlesinger, William H.; Zilberman, David (Washington, D.C.: Conference on Carbon Sequestration, 2001)
    The focus of a forthcoming Council on Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) report is to summarize and synthesize the most recent research on the potential to mitigate GHG emissions through improvements in agricultural and land management practices. The report is designed to inform policy and decision makers in government and industry, agricultural producers, environmental and other nongovernmental organizations, and the general public. A major objective of the report has been to bring together biophysical and ecological information with economics and policy analysis, to provide a clearer picture of the potential role of agriculture in GHG mitigation strategies. In addition, a major aim has been to address all three major greenhouse gases and to consider the potential tradeoffs and/or synergisms between practices aimed at carbon sequestration and mitigation of N2O and CH4 emissions, in order to understand the net effect of all three gases (CO2, N2O and CH4), which can be expressed as an aggregate global warming potential (GWP) value. It is hoped that this synthesis will inform the debate on GHG mitigation in ongoing national and international efforts to deal with global climate change. This paper presents a brief synopsis of some of the findings of the CAST report.
  • Assessing regional impacts of change: Linking economic and environmental models
    Attwood, J.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Chen, Chi Chung; Eddleman, B.; Nayda, B.; Srinivasan, R. (Barking, England: Elsevier Science Ltd., 2000)
    There is an increasing demand for holistic analysis of proposed changes that addresses both environmental and economic factors and impacts. Because economic and environmental models typically have very different, seemingly irreconcilable structures, researchers may consider the expectations of policy makers unattainable. However, this paper presents a method for incorporating models with different spatial scales into a coherent national analysis. The authors combine an agricultural model with geographical boundaries on the state and county level and a watershed model with watershed boundaries. This method is the first to provide national analysis that includes economic results at the state and substate level and environmental results at the small watershed level. The example integrated model provides results for a national policy of cropland erosion control and dissemination of improved crop varieties by a state experiment station.
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    Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood-product markets and forest recreation
    Irland, L.; Adams, D.; Alig, R.; Betz, C.; Chen, Chi Chung; Hutchins, M.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Skog, K.; Sohngen, B. (Washington, D.C.: American Institute of Biological Sciences, 2001)
    In this paper we discuss the problems of projecting social and economic changes affecting forests and review recent efforts to assess the wood-market impacts of possible climate changes. To illustrate the range of conditions encountered in projecting socioeconomic change linked to forests, we consider two markedly different uses: forest products markets and forest recreation. In the case of forest products, we use an existing forest-sector model to arrive at new simulation results concerning the impacts of climate change. The impact of climate change on recreation has received less attention; here we consider a case study of downhill skiing. Other important forest values were not treated explicitly in this research. Our primary emphasis is on methods and issues in the socioeconomic assessment process. Our efforts may be viewed as an exercise in human ecology, studying complex interactions between human societies and their forests. We close with suggestions for future research.
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    Curbing greenhouse gases: Agriculture's role
    McCarl, Bruce A.; Schneider, Uwe (College Station, Tex.: American Agricultural Economics Association, 1999)
    This paper discusses the impacts the Kyoto Protocol may have on agriculture. The authors address the potential of emission trading markets and the role agriculture may play in that market. They discuss agricultures role as a source and as a sink of greenhouse gasses, and also examine the use of biofuels as a mitigation strategy.
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    Economic and environmental impact of improved sorghum and millet technology in Mali
    Eddleman, B.; Kergna, A.; Vitale, J.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Chen, Chi Chung; Dyke, P. (2001)
    To provide improved methods to assess the impact of introduction and use of technology, a suite of integrated interactive models was created for use in developing countries. The Agricultural Sector Model (ASM) was used to estimate the economic consequences of adopting a new sorghum production system derived from joint U.S. and Malian research under the INTSORMIL CRSP and ICRISAT. It assumed an adoption rate of between 20 and 30% among regions of Mali. Demand is based on estimates of population growth in the year 2015 (World Food Summit target date) for the various regions of Mali. The annual total national welfare associated with adoption of the technology was estimated to be FCFA 635 billion per year in the year 2015. The EPIC model was run with 20-year simulations. The model predicts a reduction in erosion using the new production system ranging 1-3% in the Segou region; 30-43% in Kayes. The reduction is attributed to faster development of canopy cover exhibited with the new system. This is due both to the improved germplasm and the increased use of fertilizer. These results suggest the economic benefits of the new production package are accompanied by positive environmental consequences through reduction in soil erosion.
  • The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali
    Butt, T.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Angerer, Jay; Dyke, P.; Stuth, Jerry (Dordrecht-Holland ; Boston: Reidel Publishing Company, 2003)
    This study uses climate change projections from two global circulation models to address the impact of climate change on Mali's agriculture sector and the consequences for the sector economy and food security. The authors focus on crops, forage, and livestock as indicators of climate change effects. The analysis projected a change in national crop yields between a 17% decrease and a 6% increase, a 5 to 36% decrease in forage yields, and a 14 to 16% decrease in livestock weights. These changes correspond to economic losses of $70 to $142 million, which are primarily absorbed by the consumers; the percentage of the population at risk for hunger is projected to increase to 64 to 72%, which is a potentially doubling the current estimate of 34%. The authors suggest that developing heat resistant cultivars, using improved cultivars already developed, adapting cropping patterns to climate changes, and expanding cropland can prevent these dramatic consequences of climate change and lower the percentage facing a hunger risk to as low as 28%.
  • The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture
    Adams, Richard M.; Chen, Chi-Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Weiher, Rodney F. (Luhe, Germany: Inter-Research, 1999)
    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to be a significant cause of year to year climate variation, which greatly impacts agricultural productivity. The unusually strong El Niño event in 1997-98 and the strong La Niña event that followed in 1998-99 both led to economic consequences for US agriculture. This paper applies a stochastic economic model to estimate the extent of economic damage, deriving predicted losses to be $1.5 to $1.7 billion for El Niño and $2.2 to $6.5 billion for La Niña.
  • Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts
    Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Richard M. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001)
    This paper evaluates the economic consequences that would occur in the agricultural sector if the strength and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event would increase, which some researchers suggest could occur as a result of global climate change. The agricultural sector model applied by the authors predicted that a shift in only the frequency of ENSO events would cause damages to the global agricultural system on a scale of 3 to 4 hundred million dollars (U.S. currency). The damage caused if both strength and frequency and intensity increase could exceed one billion dollars. Although farmers can abate some of the damages through adaptions of crop mixes in anticipation of ENSO events, it is not possible to entirely offset losses.
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    Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts
    Chen, Chi-Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Richard M. (1999)
    Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann et al.(1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the $3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.
  • Economic potential of biomass based fuels for greenhouse gas emission mitigation
    Schneider, Uwe; McCarl, Bruce A. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003)
    This paper examines the role biofuels could potentially fill in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing combustion of fossil fuels. Currently, biofuels are not economically viable if not subsidized. The authors apply a US Agricultural sector model (ASM) to assess how the production and processing of biofuels could be incorporated into a greenhouse gas mitigation market. Emission coefficients for agricultural practices are estimated with crop growth simulation models and hypothetical carbon prices are used to simulate markets and policies. The model results suggest that if carbon prices are at or below $40 / ton, there is no incentive for biofuels; soil tillage and afforestation are more economic mitigation approaches. If carbon prices exceed $70, biofuels become the most viable agricultural mitigation option.
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    Economic potential of greenhouse gas emission reductions: Comparative role for soil sequestration in agriculture and forestry
    McCarl, Bruce A.; Schneider, Uwe; Murray, Brian; Williams, Jimmy; Sands, Ronald D. (2001)
    This paper examines the relative contribution of AF activities in an emission reduction program, focusing in part on the relative desirability of sequestration in forests and agricultural soils. The analysis will consider the effects of competition for land and other resources between AF activities and traditional production. In addition, analysis is done on the influence of saturation and volatility.
  • Effects of climatic change on a water dependent regional economy: A study of the Texas Edwards Aquifer
    Chen, Chi Chung; Gillig, D.; McCarl, Bruce A. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000)
    This study uses the case study of the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region to examine the projected impacts of global climate change on regional water demand and supply. The authors address the economic impacts and the damage and sectoral reallocation of water resources that climate change causes in water short regions. Their model, which includes hydrology and economic factors in a regional assessment, suggests that there will be an increase in demand for water resources and a decrease in availability, resulting in an annual loss of 2.2-6.8 million for the region. The authors also find that protection of endangered species requires that springflows remain at their current levels, which can be achieved by decreasing pumping rates by 9 to 20%.
  • Effects of global climate change on the U.S. forest sector: Response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator
    McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, D.; Alig, R.; Burton, D.; Chen, Chi Chung (Oldendorf, Germany: Inter-Research Science Center, 2000)
    This paper assesses the economic repercussions global climate change may have on the United States forest sector. The authors apply an economic forest sector model that accounts for a wide range of possible biological forest responses to climate change. Results are inputs for response functions, which yield overviews of the impacts caused by climate change. They found that the welfare of producers 30-40 years in the future is at greatest risk. However, overall impacts on both producers and consumers are relatively small, possibly due to the capacity of the forest sector to adjust, thus mitigating some of the effects of climate change.
  • Greenhouse gas mitigation in U.S. agriculture and forestry
    McCarl, Bruce A.; Schneider, Uwe (Washington, D.C.: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2001)
    This paper discusses the economic and technical potential for sequestering carbon in the agriculture and forestry (AF) sectors of the United States. The authors apply an agricultural sector model that includes green house gases (ASMGHG) to assess the possibility of mitigating carbon emissions in AF. Although the findings suggest that AF strategies will not be sufficient to abate emissions to the extent required by Kyoto Protocol, incorporating AF mitigation into other conservation efforts could contribute significantly to reducing GHG emissions.
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    Improving the water component of an agricultural climate change assessment: Issues from the standpoint of agricultural economists
    McCarl, Bruce A.; Reilly, J. (1999)
    The National Global Climate Change Research Program is supporting appraisals of water and agriculture among others. This paper discusses ways that the agricultural appraisal impact analysis
  • An investigation of the relationship between pesticide usage and climate change
    Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001)
    Many agriculturalists are concerned that climate change may increase pest migration and population increases, which could have very detrimental effects on the productivity and profitability of agriculture. The authors assess how current climate variations affect pesticide costs per acre in the U.S. as an indicator of the impacts of pest population changes. Examining pesticide costs independently for corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat, they found that all the studied crops required increased pesticide expenditures when rainfall increased, and all but wheat had higher costs with higher temperatures. Increased rainfall also increased the cost variability for cotton, while decreasing variability for the other crops. Higher temperatures corresponded to increased cost variability for corn, potatoes, and wheat and decreased variance for soybeans.
  • New markets and technological change for the traditional cereals in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa: The Malian case
    Vitale, J.; Sanders, J. (Amsterdam ; New York: Elsevier, 2005)
    This paper addresses the need for development and research to be invested in semiarid regions of sub-Saharan Africa - not just in the high rainfall and irrigated regions, which have been the focus of efforts in the last three decades. The authors also describe the negative impact of the lack of policy regarding profitability of food crops. Good weather causes price collapse and bad weather creates crises that require food aid or subsidized food imports. The authors suggest the need for demand-side dissemination of improved technologies. To evaluate the effect of technological change and demand shifts for sorghum, the authors apply a sector model. The model simulates the impacts of policy combinations that cause farmers to receive higher prices after adopting higher-input technologies. The model also compares a policy focused on increasing yield and demand for sorghum in the semiarid region to policy strategies for high-rainfall zones.
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    Policy and technology options for dairy systems in East Africa: Economic and environmental assessment
    Kaitho, R.; Eddleman, B.; Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Angerer, Jay; Stuth, Jerry (2001)
    Assessment of smallholder dairy technology was used as a case study to develop models in the SANREM decision support system. Scenarios depicting the industry before current improvements, the current situation, and forecasted improvements resulting from further adoption of technology were evaluated. GIS methods were used to establish appropriate sampling frames for field studies and analysis. Forage and livestock models supplemented reported data as input to economic and environmental models. Assessment of the impact of alternative smallholder dairy technology packages was evaluated in the Sondu river basin using watershed models driven by economic and environmental models. With demand growth from projected population increases, full adoption of the improved dairy technology package would generate total economic welfare of KS 4,206 million. Full adoption of the technology package in the Sondu river basin would increase sediment loads in the basin by 5% over a 21-year period and stream flow would increase slightly. The general models developed from initial smallholder dairy studies predict annual increases in productivity of between 0.3 and 0.5% per year would be required to sustain food prices at current levels with 2015 demand. Intensification and extensification strategies were evaluated to achieve these levels of productivity. Combinations of strategies were predicted to be the most rational in meeting future food security demands with sustainable use of natural resources.
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    Postoptimal linear programming analysis of farm machinery
    Bender, D. A.; Kline, D. Earl; McCarl, Bruce A. (American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 1990)
    Linear programming (LP) is a widely used technique for farm machinery selection. Shadow prices from LP models are typically used to identify farm machinery bottlenecks. Shadow prices represent the value of an additional unit of a scarce resource, such as planter hours during a given time period. This shadow price approach can be misleading since a machinery change may affect the usages of other scarce resources, such as tractors and labor. A postoptimality algorithm is presented which improves on the shadow price approach. This algorithm gives detailed information on the effects of a machinery change on all relevant tractor and labor resources. This information is useful for investigating complex machinery interactions. The postoptimality algorithm is illustrated with a case study in Texas.
  • Soil carbon: Policy and economics
    Marland, Gregg; McCarl, Bruce A.; Schneider, Uwe (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001)
    This paper examines the potential for sequestering carbon in agricultural soils. The authors assess the viability of storing carbon in agricultural soils by addressing the costs and repercussions and the numerous policy and economic factors. Implementation, economics, private property rights, agricultural policy, and institutional and social structures are all issues that will determine if this method of carbon sequestration will succeed. The most crucial determinants are the incentive system and the agricultural policies that incorporate carbon sequestration.